13 Economic, Market & Policy Indicators— Every signal used in our ETF decisions
MC AI Labs' 4 AIs aggregate these 13 indicators to determine monthly ETF allocation. Each entry includes definition, interpretation, related ETFs and FAQs — written for non-specialists.
Macro
GDP, employment, inflation, production — real-economy signals9 itemsISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM PMI
Manufacturing PMI. Above 50 = expansion, below = contraction. 3-month trend > single month.
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
US unemployment rate. Sahm Rule triggers when 3-month MA rises +0.5pp above 12-month low.
Consumer Price Index
CPI
Consumer Price Index. Year-over-year inflation vs Fed 2% target. Core (ex-food/energy) is the real trend.
Core PCE Inflation
Core PCE
Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Excludes food/energy. 3-month annualized trend matters more.
Non-Farm Payrolls
NFP
Non-farm payrolls. Fed's dual-mandate fastest signal. *Revisions* matter as much as headline.
Real GDP
GDP
Real GDP quarterly. 2 consecutive negative quarters = technical recession. Lagging signal.
Retail Sales (Advance)
Retail Sales
Monthly retail/food-service sales. Fastest consumer signal. Control group feeds GDP.
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
U-Mich consumer survey. Leading indicator for next 6-12 months of spending.
Industrial Production Index
INDPRO
Fed's monthly industrial output index. Tracks PMI closely. 3-month MA = trend.
Market
VIX, credit spreads, yield curve — market-implied signals3 itemsYield Curve (10Y-2Y)
T10Y2Y
10Y minus 2Y yield. Inversion = recession signal (12-18 month lead). Un-inversion = imminent recession.
High Yield OAS Spread
HY Spread
High-yield bond OAS vs Treasuries. Earliest credit stress signal. <300bp = late-cycle overheating.
VIX Volatility Index
VIX
CBOE volatility index. <20 stable, >30 panic. *Low VIX doesn't mean safe to buy* is a myth.
Policy
Fed funds, dot plot — policy decision drivers1 itemsWhy we publish *all 13*
A black-box AI breaks trust. This page lists *every input we use*. Same data + same method → same conclusion is true trust.
→ Methodology covers the 4-AI weight system and consensus process.
ⓘ Each indicator has full English detail pages (definition · trading implications · FAQ).