Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
장단기 금리차 (10Y-2Y)
1. Definition
10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield. Negative (inverted) = recession leading indicator (typically leads by 12–18 months). Positive = normal curve.
2. Reading Guide
The *inversion* itself isn't the trigger — *un-inversion* (return to positive) is the real imminent-recession signal, per historical pattern.
3. ETF Trading Implications
6–12 months after un-inversion = peak recession risk window. Time to strengthen defensives.
4. Related ETFs
6. Frequently Asked Questions
Q. Inversion ended — why is it still dangerous?▼
Inversion is when *the market is pricing in recession*. Un-inversion signals *Fed cut cycle starting*, meaning we may already be entering or near recession. Same pattern in 1990, 2001, 2008, 2020.
Q. Is the current +0.50% safe?▼
Curve has normalized. But late-cycle signals (employment, credit) must be watched alongside.
Source · License
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
License: 공공 데이터 (일 1회)
API: FRED T10Y2Y