UMCSENTFRED: UMCSENTMacro
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
미시간 소비자심리지수
1. Definition
University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment survey index. Baseline 1966 = 100. Leading indicator for the next 6–12 months of consumption.
2. Reading Guide
Below 70 = pessimism. Above 90 = optimism. *Expected inflation (1-year/5-year)* is also released and impacts Fed policy.
3. ETF Trading Implications
Sharp drops precede consumer discretionary (XLY) weakness. Recovery is an early signal for cyclical strength.
4. Related ETFs
6. Frequently Asked Questions
Q. U-Mich vs Conference Board — what's the difference?▼
Both measure consumer sentiment. U-Mich emphasizes *current vs future*, Conference Board emphasizes *employment*. Divergence = noise; alignment = signal.
Q. What does the current 53.3 reading mean?▼
*Pessimistic zone* (lower than post-COVID's 71). Approaching 1980 stagflation levels. Influenced by political/tariff uncertainty.
Source · License
Source: University of Michigan
License: 조사 데이터 (월 1회, 예비+확정)
API: FRED UMCSENT