Unemployment Rate
실업률
1. Definition
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly non-farm unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule triggers a recession signal when the 3-month moving average rises +0.5pp above its 12-month low.
2. Reading Guide
4.0–4.5% indicates late full-employment. Above 4.5% risks Sahm Rule activation. Above 5.0% suggests recession entry.
3. ETF Trading Implications
Rising trend → raise defensives (XLV, XLP). Falling trend → cyclicals (XLY, XLF) become buy candidates.
4. Related ETFs
6. Frequently Asked Questions
Q. What is the Sahm Rule?▼
An empirical rule where the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rising *+0.5pp above the 12-month low* signals recession entry. Triggered for the first time in August 2024, causing market volatility.
Q. When is it released?▼
First Friday of each month, 8:30 AM ET (21:30 KST same day).
Source · License
Source: BLS · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
License: 공공 데이터 (월 1회)
API: FRED UNRATE