Monthly Debate▲ +7.15%

June 2026 review — +7.15% hit, alpha +4.0%p

MC AI LabsMay 30, 2026· #XLV #SOXX #ITA #alpha

TL;DR

Our May allocation (Healthcare 25% · Semiconductors 35% · Defense 25% · cash 15%) returned +7.15% in June, beating SPY by +4.0 percentage points. Semiconductors did the heavy lifting (+12% in 4 weeks); Defense quietly hedged the macro fear.

What worked

Semiconductors (SOXX) delivered the cyclical bottom thesis exactly as our 5-round debate consensus called it. The May Round 4 dissent ("SOXX is a value trap") turned out wrong — and we documented that publicly in our Track Record archive.

Healthcare (XLV) at 25% acted as portfolio ballast. The defensive premium expanded as UMich data deteriorated mid-June.

What got lucky

Defense (ITA) at 25% returned +4.8%, mostly driven by two specific contract announcements we did not anticipate. Honest assessment: 30% of ITA's gain was attributable to news flow we did not model.


Not investment advice.

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Monthly Debate

Monthly Debate— Pending

July 2026 — Healthcare holds #1, defensive thesis intact

Jun 2
Monthly Debate▲ +3.21%

April 2026 — SOXX overweight, semis cycle entry

Apr 30
Monthly Debate▼ -2.10%

March 2026 — SOXX overweight bet (the call)

Mar 31