2026년 6월 ETF 리포트
+8.42%MC AI 가중 수익률 (2026-06)vs SPY -1.55%vs QQQ -0.85%
① 판단 근거
소비심리 -6.6% 급락(UMich 49.8) + CPI +3.78% 끈적임 + 6/16-17 워시 첫 FOMC(점도표) 임박의 3중 약세 신호. 디펜시브 전환으로 XLV 첫 1순위 부상(+3%p, 36%) + SOXX -3%p(35%, ±3%p 룰 상한·레짐 미전환) + ITA 동결(29%, 방위 모멘텀). 13지표 가중합산 60.7→58.5(-2.2). 6/16-17 매파 점도표 시 trig-006 즉시 발동(추가 SOXX -5%p) 예약. 확신도 0.62→0.58.
③ 사후 회고
The defensive pivot (XLV to #1) plus a still-running semiconductor rally carried the book while the broad market fell. Caveat: the alpha is partly relative — SPY was down, so this reflects narrow breadth as much as conviction. The SOXX -3pp trim cost almost nothing (about -0.14pp) while adding protection.
📝 June-decided portfolio (XLV 36% / SOXX 35% / ITA 29%) realized +8.42% over 6/2 to 7/1 vs SPY -1.55% — alpha +9.98pp, the best alpha month in five. SOXX +12.03%, XLV +7.32%, ITA +5.44%.