Why 5 rounds
A single-pass AI recommendation hides its weakest assumption. We force 5 distinct rounds with 4 personas — Macro Strategist, Quant Analyst, Risk Manager, Devil's Advocate — to expose hidden disagreements before they reach allocation.
The 5 Rounds
Round 1 — Previous month review
Each persona scores last month's allocation. What hit? What missed? What was lucky vs. skilled?
Round 2 — Macro pivots
Identify 3-5 macro inflection points since last debate. Quantify each: probability, magnitude, time horizon.
Round 3 — Sector candidates
Generate 5-8 sector candidates with rationale.
Round 4 — Dissent check
Devil's Advocate persona challenges each candidate with the strongest counter-thesis.
Round 5 — Final allocation
Quantitative weights assigned via constrained optimization.
Public scoring
Every allocation is scored at month-end against SPY. Hits and misses both published in Track Record — no cherry-picking.